霍元甲An Attack on Democracy, From Racial Voter Suppression to Invalidating Elections Altogether_我的网站
A | In 1963, just as Martin Luther King Jr. and the other “Big Six” civil rights leaders were in the final stages of planning the March on Washington, my mother, Sybil Haydel Morial, incorporated the Louisiana League of Good Government, a nonprofit created to help African Americans overcome deterrents to voting such as literacy tests. She’d been banned from joining the Louisiana branch of the League of Women Voters because of her race. “That shut door was an epiphany for me,” she wrote in her memoir, “Witness to Change: From Jim Crow to Political Empowerment.” Rather than be deterred, she devoted herself to preparing Black New Orleanians for Louisiana’s nearly-impossible literacy test. Registrars – who were all white – had wide latitude in determining who passed or failed such tests, and they used their authority to fail most Black applicants, thereby keeping them from voting. Ironically, one of the tests required applicants to read the preamble of the U.S. Constitution, intended to “establish Justice” and “secure the Blessings of Liberty,” in the words of the Founding Fathers who authored them nearly two centuries earlier. But in Louisiana, in 1963, justice and liberty still were reserved mostly for white people. On the very day that civil rights activist Medgar Evers was gunned down in his own driveway in Jackson, Mississippi, in June of 1963, my mother picked up the phone to hear, “Morial is going to get what that [racial slur] in Mississippi got.” We had been receiving threatening calls ever since my father, Ernest “Dutch” Morial,” had assumed the presidency of the NAACP in New Orleans (and later the first Black mayor of the city). But after that threatening phone call, my parents took extra precautions: My father would blast his car horn when he pulled up to the house each night, and my mother would flash the carport light several times, all to scare off would-be assassins. The voting rights struggle of my parents’ generation was a steep uphill climb, but as the years went by, they saw barrier after barrier fall, from the 1954 Brown v. Board of Education decision (where the Supreme Court ruled that racial segregation in public schools was unconstitutional) to the Civil Rights Act to the Voting Rights Act of 1965 to the Fair Housing Act of 1968. Now, 60 years after the March on Washington, we are seeing many of those same barriers – and new ones – rise up once again. My parents fought Jim Crow, who used bogus literacy tests and threats of violence to keep Black Americans from the voting booth. By the time I assumed leadership of the National Urban League in 2003, our adversary was James Crow, Esq., who used racial gerrymandering to dilute the political voices of Black Americans. Today, we are battling Jimmy Crow, who wants to disregard the results of elections entirely. The current assault on voting rights is a direct response to the rising influence of the Black vote since the passage of the Voting Rights Act of 1965. As we noted in last year’s State of Black America report, which was subtitled “Under Siege: The Plot to Destroy Democracy,” an anti-democracy wave began to rise after record-high Black voting rates in 2008 and crested with the Supreme Court’s 2013 decision in Shelby County v. Holder to gut the Voting Rights Act. Now, that wave has broken against “The Big Lie,” the relentless campaign to invalidate the free, fair and validated results of the 2020 election. Those who marched in 1963 were fighting for their right to participate in democracy. Those who attacked the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, were fighting to obliterate democracy. So far, in 2023 alone, state lawmakers have introduced at least 323 bills to restrict the vote in 45 states. At least 13 of these bills, in 11 states, have passed into law. Even more alarming is the rise of election interference legislation, which would allow partisan interference in the election process. At least 78 bills have been introduced this year in 20 states that would make it easier to, for example, criminally prosecute election officials for simply doing their jobs, set up bogus partisan “review” procedures, or prohibit the use of machines to count ballots for any election. At least four states already have passed such laws. The campaign to exclude Black Americans from the democratic process is gradually being supplanted with a campaign to eliminate the democratic process altogether. Earlier this summer, with its decision in Moore v. Harper, the U.S. Supreme Court rejected the “independent state legislature theory” that extremists have pushed in order to give state legislatures free rein to gerrymander electoral maps and suppress voters of color – and to give cover to their sinister efforts to overturn elections. Still, the court’s decision is unlikely to deter these extremists, who are intent on returning a man to the White House who faces numerous indictments for attempting to invalidate the results of the 2020 election. If those forces succeed, the two-century moral arc that has bent slowly, if unevenly, toward universal suffrage could come to an end. 。 本周三（8月26日）美股盘后，“AI芯片霸主”英伟达将公布2027财年第二季度财报。作为AI交易的风向标，英伟达财报已成为投资者每个季度都翘首以盼的重头戏，其业绩表现不仅关乎自身股价，更将牵动整个AI芯片乃至美股科技板块的走向。
根据媒体汇总的分析师的一致预期，英伟达第二季度营收将达920亿美元，调整后每股收益（EPS）为2.09美元。
B | 这将意味着公司整体营收将实现96%的同比增长，并且环比增速进一步加快。 摩根士丹利上周预计，英伟达第二季度营收为911亿美元，第三季度营收为1023亿美元；对应每股收益分别为2.07美元和2.34美元，与市场预期基本持平。 英伟达在上一次财报中更改了报告披露框架，将业务划分为“数据中心”和“边缘计算”两大平台。其中，数据中心业务进一步细分为“超大规模云厂商（Hyperscale）”和“ACIE（AI云、工业和企业）”两大板块。 而个人电脑（PC）、游戏主机、工作站、机器人以及汽车相关收入，则统一归入“边缘计算”板块。 英伟达第二季度数据中心业务营收预计将突破854亿美元，同比增长107%。其中，超大规模云服务商板块的收入预计达435亿美元，ACIE板块的收入预计将达417亿美元。 英伟达绝大部分营收依旧来自亚马逊、谷歌、微软等超大规模云服务商。但这些公司要么在自研芯片降低对英伟达的依赖，要么在向第三方客户销售自研芯片，这或将成为英伟达未来增长的不利因素。 据相关统计，如果英伟达第二季度业绩符合华尔街预期，该公司将成为该季度标普500指数盈利增长的第四大贡献者，排在亚马逊、Alphabet和美光（在AI热潮的推动下，这三家公司的业绩近几个季度实现了爆发式增长）之后，是过去11个季度中排名最低的一次。
C | 但若排除Alphabet和亚马逊的一次性投资收益，美光将位居第一，英伟达排在第二。随着AI存储芯片需求激增，美光利润大幅飙升。 AI交易迎“大考” 在这份财报发布之际，美股芯片股整体承压。由于市场担忧企业巨额AI投资能否产生相应的回报，7月份芯片股遭遇大幅回调。
D | 过去几周，芯片股虽明显反弹但行情仍然脆弱。 相比于英伟达财报的姗姗来迟，美国多家主要科技巨头早在近一个月前就已经交出了“成绩单”。微软、亚马逊和谷歌凭借各自云业务的强劲增长，在一定程度上缓解了市场担忧。不过，谷歌和Meta公布的资本支出加码计划，还是让投资者捏了一把汗。
E | 与此同时，英伟达持续同AI生态圈的各方企业达成合作。这持续加剧投资者对AI行业“循环融资”的担忧。 本月早些时候，这家AI领军企业宣布，正与贝莱德、黑石、KKR、阿波罗、Brookfield以及高盛联手，筹建一个规模达5000亿美元的资金池，推动将英伟达GPU 资产证券化。 此外，英伟达还同意为OpenAI在美国俄亥俄州租赁一座大型数据中心提供最高1050亿美元的担保。该数据中心由软银旗下SB Energy负责开发，这也是英伟达迄今规模最大的基础设施融资承诺之一。 Seaport Research首席股票策略师Jonathan Golub表示，英伟达的业绩不仅仅是对推动行业超大规模数据中心建设的云巨头们的一次检验，同时也关乎所有支撑这项技术的企业。 “这其中包括为数据中心提供电力的公司、负责数据中心建设的公司、为数据中心项目提供贷款的银行，以及参与相关企业IPO的资本市场机构。所以，与AI主题相关联的企业群体非常广泛。”他表示。 市场研究公司eMarketer的科技分析师Jacob Bourne在接受媒体采访时表示，英伟达的季度业绩之所以对整个市场意义重大，是因为这家公司正处于AI交易的核心位置，而AI交易本身又是推动市场上涨的主要动力。 该分析师同时指出，电力供给正成为英伟达业绩的一大制约因素。他表示，在美国部分地区，数据中心建设极具政治争议。即便市场对英伟达产品的需求持续旺盛，其转化为实际收入的速度，仍取决于数据中心建设的推进节奏。 此外，Bourne也承认，市场对英伟达财报的预期已经发生了变化——投资者越来越将“业绩超预期”视作理所当然，该公司满足投资者期望的门槛相当高。在他看来，英伟达需要向投资者证明其增长势头能够持续，而在这一点上，英伟达能做的其实有限。 摩根士丹利也预计，英伟达大概率再次交出“超预期+上调指引”的成绩单，但单纯的业绩超预期可能已经不足以推动该公司股价上涨。
F | 该行认为，市场份额、毛利率、循环融资模式以及Rubin放量等中长期变量，才是决定英伟达估值能否进一步扩张的关键，而单份财报可能无法彻底回答这些问题。
G | 。 Current article:http://www.laojiusidaosenleliao.bond/news/20260826_74170.pptx Published on:21:44:17 |
